REMAX THAILAND BI-ANNUAL MARKET REPORT

Thai Real Estate Market Analysis - First Half 2025

Written by Eran Milo, REMAX Thailand Regional Director

Executive Summary

Thailand's real estate market in H1 2025 has demonstrated remarkable resilience amid complex economic headwinds, emerging from a period of cautious adjustment into selective growth. The market has been characterized by a tale of two segments: luxury and prime properties showing robust performance, while mid-market segments continue to face affordability challenges

Key findings reveal that Thailand's residential property prices have continued their upward trajectory, with condominiums experiencing 2.5-3.6% year-on-year growth in major markets . Foreign investment has remained a critical driver, accounting for over 15.3% of total transaction value in Q1 2025, with Chinese, Myanmar, and Russian buyers leading international demand.

The market's evolution has been shaped by two transformative forces: the March 2025 earthquake that shifted buyer preferences toward low-rise, earthquake-resistant properties, and increasingly stringent bank lending criteria that have created a more selective financing environment. Despite these challenges, transaction values are projected to reach $16.85 billion by year-end, supported by government stimulus measures including reduced transfer fees and relaxed loan-to-value ratios.

Tourist destinations continue to outperform urban markets, with Phuket achieving 4.8-6.7% annual price growth and Pattaya experiencing unprecedented foreign buyer interest. The outlook for H2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, with infrastructure developments and tourism recovery providing fundamental support for long-term market stability.

Thai Macroeconomic Overview

Thailand's economic landscape in H1 2025 has been defined by moderate growth tempered by global uncertainties and domestic structural challenges 12. GDP growth reached 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, slightly exceeding market expectations but representing a deceleration from Q4 2024's 3.3% growth.

Economic Growth and Outlook

The Thai economy has faced significant headwinds, with full-year GDP growth forecasts revised downward to a range of 1.3-2.3%, marking a substantial reduction from earlier projections of 2.3-3.3%. This revision reflects mounting concerns over global trade tensions and their impact on Thailand's export-dependent economy, with export growth forecasts cut to just 1.8% from an earlier 3.5% projection.

Private consumption growth moderated to 2.6% in Q1 2025, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting persistent household debt burdens and cautious consumer spending. However, exports provided a bright spot, surging 15.0% year-on-year to $80.4 billion in Q1, driven by electronics and rubber demand.

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

The Bank of Thailand has adopted an accommodative stance to support economic growth, cutting the policy rate to 2.00% in February 2025, marking the first time rates reached this level in two years. The central bank emphasized that this decision was driven by economic fundamentals rather than political pressure, as Thailand's growth trajectory has fallen short of expectations.

Further monetary easing is anticipated, with analysts projecting additional rate cuts of 25-50 basis points through 2025-2027 to support economic expansion 15. This dovish policy stance directly benefits real estate markets by reducing borrowing costs and improving affordability for potential homebuyers.

Inflation and Cost Pressures

Thailand's inflation environment has remained benign, with headline inflation turning negative for consecutive months in H1 2025, falling 0.57% year-on-year in May. The government has revised its full-year inflation forecast to 0.0-1.0%, well below the central bank's target range of 1.0-3.0%.

This disinflationary environment reflects lower energy costs and increased agricultural production, providing relief to consumers but also signaling weak domestic demand

pressures. Core inflation remained marginally positive at 1.09% in May, indicating underlying price stability. (Source Bangkok Post)

Tourism Recovery

Tourism has been a critical economic driver, with over 12.09 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand in the first four months of 2025, generating 576.85 billion baht in revenue despite a slight 0.26% decrease in visitor numbers 17. The sector's revenue growth of 5.24% year-on-year demonstrates improved spending per visitor, supporting hospitality and related real estate segments.

The Tourism Authority targets 25 million international visitors for full-year 2025, with the sector expected to approach pre-pandemic levels and provide crucial support to property markets in tourist destinations.

H1 2025 National Market Snapshot

Thailand's residential property market has demonstrated selective strength in H1 2025, with clear segmentation between premium and mass-market performance 519. National residential property prices have maintained upward momentum, with the Bank of Thailand's Residential Property Price Index reaching historic highs.

Residential Market Performance

The condominium segment has led price appreciation, with national growth averaging 2.46-3.6% year-on-year across major markets 54. Bangkok condominiums in the Central Business District command average prices of THB 236,000 per square meter, compared to THB 127,000 in suburban areas 21. This price differential reflects continued premiumization and flight-to-quality trends among buyers.

Single-detached houses have shown more modest growth of 2.55% year-on-year nationally, while townhouses achieved 3.53% appreciation. The luxury housing segment has significantly outperformed, with ultra-luxury units (above THB 100.1 million) in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region projected to achieve 90% sales performance in 2025.

Transaction Volume Trends

The residential real estate transaction market is projected to reach $16.85 billion in 2025, with expectations for 4.47% compound annual growth through 2029. However, current transaction volumes reflect ongoing market selectivity, with buyers increasingly focusing on quality, location, and earthquake resistance following March 2025's seismic event.

New project launches have declined significantly, with Bangkok Metropolitan Region launches falling from 462 projects in 2023 to 375 projects in 2024, representing a 19% decrease. Development values similarly contracted 26% to 413.73 billion baht, though recovery is expected with a projected 10% increase in 2025 .(source area.co.th

Land Market Dynamics

Land prices have experienced the most dramatic appreciation, particularly in prime locations with mass transit connectivity 2324. The land price index for Greater Bangkok reached 401.4 in Q4 2024, representing modest 1.8% year-on-year growth, but specific corridors have seen exceptional gains.

Areas along mass transit lines have commanded significant premiums, with properties near the Blue Line, Gold Line, and Orange Line achieving 6-7% price increases. Inner Bangkok land prices have surged 17.8% year-on-year in select locations, reflecting infrastructure-driven value appreciation.

Supply and Inventory Challenges

The market continues to grapple with supply imbalances, particularly in the condominium sector where significant completed inventory remains unsold 2125. At end-2024, 3,028 residential projects were actively marketing 837,090 units with a combined value of 3.85 trillion baht.

Listed developers face mounting pressure from over 156 billion baht in debt maturing within the year, forcing aggressive pricing strategies and inventory clearance efforts. This dynamic has created opportunities for buyers while challenging developer profitability and new project feasibility.(Source Knight Frank, area, Bangkok post)

Regional Deep Dives

Bangkok

Bangkok's real estate market in H1 2025 has been characterized by a stark divide between luxury performance and mass-market struggles. The capital's prime condominium market experienced its lowest quarterly absorption since early 2022, signaling fundamental demand challenges despite policy support measures.(Source Jll)

Residential Market Performance

Prime condominium capital values remained essentially flat in Q1 2025, declining 0.1% quarter-on-quarter amid market uncertainty. However, the rental market has shown resilience, with gross rents rising for the 12th consecutive period as buyers shift toward rental accommodation due to affordability constraints and relocation flexibility preferences.

New supply additions remained limited, with the completion of Scope Thonglor adding just 18 units to the prime market, bringing total inventory to 72,500 units. Developer focus has shifted toward all-penthouse developments targeting ultra-high-net-worth buyers, reflecting market realities and financing constraints.

Land Market Dynamics

Bangkok's land market has experienced selective appreciation, with properties along mass transit corridors commanding significant premiums 2324. The highest price growth has been recorded in Chatuchak, Huai Khwang, Yannawa, and Watthana districts, achieving 16.4% year-on-year increases due to infrastructure connectivity.

Market Outlook

The earthquake impact has accelerated preferences for low-rise developments and earthquake-resistant construction, with 24% increased demand for detached homes reported by analytics firms. Bangkok's mature downtown market continues focusing on end-users and second-home demand, with foreign buyers expected to comprise an increasing proportion of transactions.
(Source Charlton Media Group, Jll)

Chiang Mai

Chiang Mai has emerged as a standout performer in Thailand's regional property markets, benefiting from strong foreign investment and infrastructure development. The market has rebounded robustly from 2024's challenges, with condominiums in prime locations experiencing 10% annual growth.

Residential Market Performance

Condominium prices have reached THB 58,000-84,000 per square meter, with prime city center locations achieving 10-12% annual appreciation. Houses in suburban areas have shown more moderate 2.9-5% growth, while city properties have gained 4.4-6.9% year-on-year.

The market benefits from over 30,000 expatriate residents and strong digital nomad interest, supporting rental yields of 4-8.2% in prime areas. Foreign buyers, particularly from China (39.7%), Myanmar (9.5%), and Russia (7.2%), have driven demand for properties above 3 million baht.

Infrastructure Impact

Major infrastructure projects including airport expansion and light rail development are boosting long-term value prospects. These developments, combined with Chiang Mai's positioning as a lifestyle destination, have attracted significant foreign investment and supported price appreciation.

Market Trends

The resale market has gained momentum as foreign buyers target existing properties with established amenities and mature neighborhoods. Properties in expatriate-favored areas like Nimman and Mae Rim command 16-24% premiums compared to local-focused developments.
(Source REMAX New Beginning)

Koh Samui

Koh Samui's real estate market has been buoyed by scarcity-driven appreciation and regulatory advantages favoring foreign investment. The island's limited development capacity and strong tourism recovery have created favorable supply-demand dynamics.

Market Fundamentals

Property prices remain 15-30% cheaper than Phuket on average, making Samui attractive to value-conscious foreign buyers. Recent policy discussions plan to changes foreign condo ownership quotas to 75% and extending leasehold terms to 99 years have enhanced interest and investment appeal.

Supply Constraints

Development is highly regulated due to zoning laws and limited land availability, with fewer than 200 new luxury villas launched over the past two years, all of which sold quickly. This supply scarcity has driven beachfront villa appreciation of 8-15% in 2024 alone.

Tourism-Driven Demand

Short-term rental demand has skyrocketed, with luxury villas commanding $500-1,800 per night during peak seasons. Many investors report annual rental yields of 5-16%, depending on location and management, supported by Thailand's tourism recovery targeting over 40 million international visitors in 2025.
(Source REMAX Island Real Estate)

Phuket

Phuket has maintained its position as Thailand's premier luxury resort real estate market, with sophisticated buyer demand and premium pricing power. The market has shown remarkable resilience despite increased supply and global economic uncertainties.

Market Performance

Condominium median prices have reached 114,000 baht per square meter, while villas average 60,000-95,000 baht per square meter. Branded properties command significant premiums, with branded condominiums fetching 32% more than non-branded alternatives (150,000 vs. 114,000 baht per sqm).

Supply Dynamics

Phuket currently offers 40,600 residential units across 343 active developments, with condominiums comprising 83% of supply. The Cherngtalay submarket dominates with 54% of active listings, benefiting from proximity to lifestyle amenities and major mixed-use developments.

Investment Activity

Q1 2025 saw 660 new units launched from 35 projects worth 23.3 billion baht, with average prices of 35 million baht per unit 11. Major Bangkok developers including Sansiri, Ananda, and Origin have expanded into Phuket, contributing to market sophistication.

Rental Market

The rental sector remains robust, with one-bedroom condos averaging 26,616 baht per month for short-term rentals, while premium villas command nearly 180,000 baht monthly. However, enforcement against illegal daily rentals in condominiums has intensified, potentially tempering investment enthusiasm.
Source Thaiger, REMAX Top Properties)

Pattaya

Pattaya has experienced unprecedented growth momentum, with the city emerging as a major beneficiary of infrastructure development and foreign investment flows. Chonburi province, encompassing Pattaya, has surpassed Bangkok as the leading destination for foreign property buyers in H1 2024.

Market Transformation

The high-speed rail link connecting Bangkok to Pattaya (operational by 2029) and U-Tapao International Airport expansion have significantly enhanced the city's connectivity and investment appeal. These infrastructure developments are anticipated to boost property demand and values substantially.

Foreign Investment Surge

Foreign investors, particularly from China and Russia, are driving exceptional demand, with developers launching over 1,500 new units expected in 2025. Some large developers have filled their 49% foreign buyer quotas within hours, with over 2,000 names on waiting lists.

Performance Metrics

Luxury condominiums with direct beach access have shown exceptional performance, with projects like PTY Residence Sai 1 capturing strong investor interest. Tourism recovery has been remarkable, with over 22 million visitors in 2024 representing nearly 57% growth compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Rental Yields

Investment properties in Pattaya are generating returns of 5-10% annually according to market analysis, with the diverse rental market supported by tourists, expatriates, and business travelers.
Source(REMAX Capital Property)

Thailand’s Casino Debate: The Next Big Driver for Real Estate and Tourism

A significant development currently fueling speculation and strategic debate within investor communities is the Thai government's advancing consideration of legalizing casinos in Thailand as part of integrated entertainment complexes. In early 2025, the Cabinet approved a draft law that would pave the way for such casino developments, aiming to stimulate the economy, attract more tourists, and generate substantial state revenue. While the legislation still requires parliamentary approval and details are subject to change, the prospect has already drawn the attention of major global casino operators—such as MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts, and Galaxy Entertainment who are actively preparing for potential opportunities to open a casino in Thailand. The government projects that these entertainment complexes could bring in over $3 billion in new investment, boost GDP growth by 0.8%, and increase foreign tourist arrivals by as much as 15%. As a result, speculation about the casino  locations, timing, and broader economic impact of potential casino openings is intensifying, with investors closely monitoring legislative progress and preparing to position themselves ahead of what could be a transformative shift in Thailand’s real estate and tourism landscape

Source(Bangkok Post, REMAX Hotel Advisory, AGB)

Special Thematic Analysis: Shifting Risk Perceptions in H1 2025

The 'Earthquake Effect': Seismic Shifts in Buyer Preferences

The March 28, 2025 earthquake near Mandalay, Myanmar, which was felt across Thailand and caused structural damage including the collapse of a government building under construction in Bangkok, has fundamentally altered risk perceptions in Thailand's real estate market.

Immediate Market Impact
The earthquake's economic impact has been estimated at THB 20-30 billion, primarily affecting tourism, real estate, and construction sectors. The real estate sector has experienced delayed purchases and transfers, resulting in reduced transaction volumes and declining new project launches throughout the year.

Shift in Housing Preferences
A profound psychological shift has emerged, with middle and upper-income buyers increasingly favoring detached homes and low-rise developments over high-rise structures. Real estate analytics firm CGS International reports that low-rise housing demand has surged over 20% in major cities like Bangkok, driven by safety concerns.

Construction Quality Scrutiny
The earthquake has intensified focus on building standards and earthquake resistance, with buyers demanding enhanced structural specifications. Materials suppliers such as HOME PRO have pivoted to serve smaller-scale builders focused on earthquake-resistant construction, indicating fundamental market shift.

Price Differentiation
A clear price differentiation has emerged between older buildings and newer, earthquake-resistant construction. Properties with certified earthquake-resistant features command premiums, while older high-rise buildings face potential discounts as buyers prioritize structural safety.

Renovation Market Revival
With land scarcity limiting new low-rise developments in urban centers, the renovation market has experienced surge in demand for retrofitting and structural upgrades. Property owners are investing in seismic strengthening and safety improvements to maintain asset values.
(Source REMAX Thailand)

The Banks' Wake-Up Call on Loan Risks

Thailand's banking sector has implemented increasingly stringent lending criteria throughout H1 2025, responding to persistent household debt concerns and regulatory pressure to maintain financial stability.

Lending Environment Tightening
Mortgage rejections for loans below 3 million baht have surged to 70%, significantly stifling mass-market demand. Banks have become more cautious about granting credit despite the Bank of Thailand's accommodative monetary policy stance.

Policy Response and Market Support
Recognizing the challenging lending environment, the Bank of Thailand relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) rules effective May 1, 2025, through June 30, 2026 8. Under new regulations, loans up to 100% of collateral value are permitted for first homes worth more than 10 million baht and second homes under 10 million baht.

Government Stimulus Measures
The government has implemented comprehensive support measures including reducing transfer and mortgage registration fees to 0.01% for properties up to 7 million baht, effective through June 2026. These measures specifically target Thai nationals and aim to stimulate domestic property transactions.

Developer Financing Challenges
Listed developers face mounting pressure with over 156 billion baht in debt maturing within the year, forcing aggressive inventory liquidation strategies. This financial pressure has limited new project launches and created opportunities for buyers seeking discounted properties.

Market Liquidity Impact
The combination of restricted lending and developer financial stress has reduced market liquidity and sales velocity. Home loans dropped 13.4% year-on-year to 587 billion baht in 2024, while residential property transfer values declined 6.3%.

Household Debt Concerns
Thailand's household debt reached 16.34 trillion baht (89% of GDP) as of September 2024, representing one of Asia's highest levels and constraining consumption and growth. This debt burden continues to limit domestic buyer capacity and supports the shift toward foreign investment reliance.
(Source: Bangkok post)

Future Outlook (H2 2025 Forecast)

Thailand's real estate market outlook for H2 2025 presents a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges, shaped by the transformative risk factors identified in our thematic analysis and evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Market Recovery Trajectory

The market is positioned for selective recovery in H2 2025, driven by tourism momentum with target over 40 million international arrivals expected for the full year. Tourist destinations including Phuket, Pattaya, Koh Samui and Chiang Mai are anticipated to maintain outperformance, with short-term rental properties generating 5-8% annual returns.

Government policy support through reduced transfer fees and 100% LTV financing availability is expected to stimulate transaction activity, particularly in the sub-7 million baht segment targeted by stimulus measures. These policies should help offset some negative impacts from stricter bank lending criteria.

Earthquake Impact Evolution

The earthquake effect is expected to become a permanent feature of buyer decision-making, with earthquake-resistant construction becoming a standard requirement rather than premium feature. Developers are likely to face increased construction costs as building standards evolve, potentially adding 8-15% to development expenses.

Low-rise and detached home developments will likely capture increasing market share, particularly in urban areas where land availability permits such projects. High-rise developments will need to demonstrate superior earthquake resistance and safety features to maintain buyer interest.

Banking Sector Adaptation

The banking sector's cautious lending approach is expected to persist through H2 2025, maintaining pressure on mass-market segments while supporting the flight to quality trend. However, the LTV relaxation measures should provide some relief for qualified borrowers in higher price segments.

Developer financing will remain challenging, likely leading to continued industry consolidation as smaller developers struggle with refinancing needs 25. Well-capitalized developers with strong land banks may benefit from reduced competition and acquisition opportunities.

Regional Performance Divergence

Bangkok's market recovery is expected to be gradual, with luxury and prime segments continuing to outperform mass-market properties. The rental market should remain relatively resilient, supported by expatriate population growth of over 4.8% in 2024.

Tourist destinations are forecast to maintain premium performance, with Phuket condominiums potentially achieving 3-8% price appreciation and Pattaya benefiting from infrastructure development completion timelines. Chiang Mai's foreign investment appeal should sustain 5-7% annual growth in prime segments.

Infrastructure and Investment Catalysts

Major infrastructure projects including the Bangkok-Pattaya high-speed rail and Eastern Economic Corridor developments will provide long-term value support, particularly for properties in connectivity corridors. These projects are expected to drive land value appreciation and development activity in strategic locations.

Foreign investment flows are likely to remain robust, with policy changes favoring international buyers in resort destinations and continued Chinese, Russian, and Middle Eastern buyer interest. The high foreign ownership share of total transaction value should be maintained or potentially increased.

Market Risks and Mitigation

Global economic uncertainty and potential trade disruptions represent ongoing risks to market stability. Thailand's export dependence makes the property market vulnerable to international economic shocks, particularly given revised GDP growth forecasts.

However, the tourism sector's recovery trajectory and government stimulus commitment provide fundamental support for property markets. The market's increasing sophistication and focus on quality over quantity should enhance long-term resilience.

Investment Strategy Implications

H2 2025 presents a transitional period where informed investors can capitalize on market dislocations while positioning for longer-term recovery. Premium properties in infrastructure-connected locations with earthquake-resistant features are likely to provide the best risk-adjusted returns.

The rental market will likely offer more immediate returns than capital appreciation, particularly in tourist destinations where international visitor recovery continues. Investors should prioritize properties that meet evolving safety standards and cater to changing buyer preferences

Conclusion

As Thailand's real estate market navigates the complexities of 2025, REMAX Thailand stands uniquely positioned to guide our clients through this period of transformation and opportunity. The first half of this year has demonstrated that while challenges exist, the fundamentals supporting Thailand's property market remain robust – from sustained foreign investment and tourism recovery to government policy support and infrastructure development.

The seismic shifts we have witnessed, both literal and metaphorical, have created a more discerning and sophisticated market. Buyers now prioritize quality, safety, and strategic location over purely speculative investments. This evolution benefits all stakeholders who embrace transparency, expertise, and long-term value creation – principles that have always defined REMAX Thailand's approach.

Our comprehensive analysis reveals that success in today's market requires nuanced understanding of regional dynamics, risk factors, and emerging opportunities. Whether navigating Bangkok's prime condominium landscape, capitalizing on Phuket's luxury resort market, or identifying value in Chiang Mai's growing expatriate community, REMAX Thailand's deep market knowledge and extensive network provide unparalleled advantage.

As we look toward the second half of 2025, we remain confident that Thailand's real estate market will continue to reward informed decision-making and strategic thinking. The convergence of infrastructure development, tourism recovery, and evolving buyer preferences creates a landscape rich with possibilities for those who understand its complexities.

At REMAX Thailand, we don't simply observe market trends – we help shape them. Our role as your trusted advisor extends beyond transactions to long-term partnership in building wealth and achieving your real estate objectives. In a market defined by change, our expertise remains your constant compass toward success.

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